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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It often functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. However, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking shock.

But the current competition is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners falling away and recent also-rans improving in unison. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a normal season!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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